Reckless Shekulation on Tom Bradys post-Deflategate future

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Reckless Shekulation on Tom Bradys post-Deflategate future

"History is written by the victors." -- Famous sayingMaybe that's true with world wars and such, but not when it comes to something as important as the pounds per square inch of air pre sure in a pigskin."Tom is acting crazy about balls." -- What does 's future hold in the wake of this latest scandal? Let's consider the po sible consequences with a little Reckle s Shekulation:The legacies of Tom Brady and the Pats will take a hit.At times like this, people (who root for teams/players other than whoever's under fire) ascend Mt. Pious to demand "justice." In the case of the , the NFL , fined New England $1 million and docked the team two draft picks -- including a first-round selection in 2016. Now, , the Pats and their fans are reflexively, hysterically (the team says Jim McNally referred to himself as the "deflator" ) attempting to combat the Pierre Larouche Jersey penalties and restore their honor.Sorry, Pats, but this war's over -- regardle s of what happens with . Irrational, unfair or otherwise, the enduring legacy of the early 21st-century and their future quarterback will be one of cheating.How do I know? Barry Bonds is Major League Baseball's all-time home-run king, and Pete Rose is the all-time hit king -- and neither scandal-plagued player is in the Baseball , a fact that allows those residents of Mt. Pious to bask in the glow of their self-righteousne s. Even if Bonds and Rose were in the Hall, of course, it wouldn't erase the self-inflicted stink they carry ... no amount of industrial-strength soap or tomato-juice baths could do that. Not now, not in 100 years. The penalty for getting caught is intrinsic. It's like a face tattoo.The have won four Lombardi Trophies this century. was the MVP in three of those wins. A century from now, though, our football-loving descendants won't compare Bill Belichick's Pats to Chuck Noll's , Jimmy Johnson's (and/or Tom Landry's) or Bill Walsh's Niners as much as they'll mention New England in the same breath as the 1919 Chicago White Sox. Nearly a century after , what is the former juggernaut's enduring legacy? What do you think of when you hear the similarly besmirched names of , or ?The Wally Pipp-er becomes the Wally Pipp-ed.Do you know whois?Wally Pipp was Drew Bledsoe before Drew Bledsoe. More specifically, Pipp was the New York Yankees first baseman who -- roughly six years after members of the "Black Sox" conspired to throw the 1919 World Series, incidentally -- took a game off because of a headache and , thanks to Don Maloney Jersey his fill-in, . Three-quarters of a century later, quarterback Bledsoe sat down with a chest injury for what he likely figured would be just a few weeks. His backup, a second-year pro from Michigan named , figured differently.Thirteen years after finishing that 2001 season atop the football mountain, Brady is set to involuntarily take some time away. In all likelihood, he's going to come back with a gigantic chip on his shoulder and a fire in his belly ... but it's certainly not a given. Or, at least, it shouldn't be viewed as one.Listen, it's not like I'm saying has played his last NFL game. But it's not impo sible to conceive of a scenario in which he's squeezed out in 2015 -- a scenario that makes a bit more sense when you consider a few factors. They say football is a game of inches, but with regard to Deflategate, it's become a game of pounds-per-square-inch. So let's a se s a few items, pseudo-scientifically, point-by-point:1) Garoppolo could be great: I know it's laughable to suggest a second-year pro -- sound familiar? -- from Eastern Illinois could even be in the same area code (), talent-wise, as one of the best quarterbacks of the era. But we shouldn't forget that was a second-round pick. By definition, then, he entered the league with a better pedigree than Brady had when he was drafted back in 2000. (You've heard Tom was a sixth-round pick, yes?)2) Brady's troubling numbers: Last time we saw Brady on the field, he was playing hero in what might have been the defining quarter of his career, leading the back from a 10-point deficit against the generation's toughest D in ... and he did it with properly inflated footballs. But some of Brady's numbers over the past few seasons indicate regre sion.Over the past two seasons, Brady has averaged 6.99 yards per attempt -- 25th in the NFL over that span. Some notable names above him on the list include (7.83), (7.46), (7.32) and (7.14). Insignificant? In the three seasons prior (from 2010 to 2012) Brady averaged 8.02 yards per attempt, , behind only (8.41) and (8.14).Brady's also been losing accuracy on deep pa ses. In 2010, he completed 35.6 percent of pa s attempts of 20 yards or more -- and that number has dropped every year since, bottoming out at 25 percent in 2014. Of the 23 quarterbacks to attempt 50-plus throws of at least 20 yards Adam Sykora Jersey downfield, only (24.2 percent) had a worse completion percentage than Brady last season. Meanwhile, one of Brady's contemporaries ( completed 45.1 percent) ranked as the second-most accurate (see the table below).Pats fans will scoff at the stats, and maybe they're justified in doing so. After all, the succe s Brady had in January and early February trump some random numbers -- which, it could be fairly suggested, were cherry-picked for Gabriel Perreault Jersey the sake of making a point. But going into what will be his age-38 season, Brady is probably lucid enough to see his near-future in the persons of and Kobe Bryant. A chip on the shoulder gets tougher to carry when those old-man injuries inevitably start piling up.3) No roster spot is ironclad:Brady is a guaranteed first-ballot r. But that hardly guarantees he can't be replaced by his backup. Not unlike Gehrig, a lot of future quarterbacks started their careers when the incumbent sat down for what was supposed to be a short spell. What if Brady's suspension is fully upheld and Garoppolo goes 4-0 to start the season -- while throwing for 350 yards and four touchdowns per game? Probably nothing happens. Probably. But if Joe Montana can be replaced (albeit by another future r), so can Brady. 4) Belichick has a history:This isn't Brady's unilateral decision. As you may have noticed, the team's head coach has made some unorthodox personnel calls over the years. There are no sacred cows in Foxborough. Belichick let Willie McGinest and walk away. He released and . He traded , Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel and Deion Branch. And most relevant to Brady, Belichick has shown he's willing to leave a highly paid, highly productive QB on the bench. Remember the aforementioned 2001 season? Bledsoe relieved the mildly-injured Brady in the AFC title game and led the team to victory. Belichick nonethele s started Brady in the ensuing . (It worked.) Bottom line is, there's precedent.5) The AFC East is going to look a lot different than its previous recent, softer incarnations: While New England lost some key pieces on defense, the , and have spent the last few months loading up on that side of the ball. One thing that remains the same: Former coach and current head man Rex Ryan -- who's shown at least an occasional ability to be Coaching Kryptonite to the New England offense -- will still get two cracks at the Pats, and with more defensive talent than he's ever had before. Perhaps Brady has some Kenny Rogers in him; with everyone else in the AFC East holding better hands, maybe he'll fold it up and walk away. The Tom Brady era comes to a premature end?Remember last September, when Gronk was playing at le s than 100 percent? The once-powerful offense looked, well, positively deflated, and most of Football America attempted to bury Brady alive. , he refused with extreme prejudice, just as he and his team did , on the heels of the Spygate scandal. Now he's facing another battle against a widespread perception -- that he needs a deflated football to succeed. Maybe this time, he'll ultimately decide it's just not worth the trouble.Think about it: If the win another this season with Brady under center, will it erase the alleged pattern of cheating? Before you answer that one, think about this: What's the first thing that comes to mind when you hear the names of Barry Bonds and Pete Rose?Just because Michael Jordan, Muhammad Ali and Wayne Gretzky refused to go out when they were at or near the height of their powers doesn't mean Brady has to follow their lead. Just because Peyton and Kobe appear willing to bang their heads against the wall to prove something to themselves and/or the world doesn't mean Brady has to. Yes, Brady still seems to be in fight mode, given that Thursday. But maybe in the next few months he'll come to see the virtue of riding off into the sunset -- -- instead of engaging in an Kaapo Kakko Jersey unwinnable war.All that said, I expect to be back under center for the before the autumn leaves start to turn. But you never know when he'll get tired of dealing with the pre sure of football(s).Follow Dave Dameshek on Twitter .
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