If theres been one defining characteristic of the 2024-25 offseason so far (aside from s record-shattering contract), its that the market for starting pitching has been extremely robust. On the heels of a 2023-24 offseason that saw top-of-the-market arms like and linger on the market until the calendar flipped to March, right-hander kicked things off by re-upping with the Royals before free agency started and the pace hasnt slowed down much since then. After right-hander reached a deal with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, nearly every notable starting pitcher was already off the market by the time the calendar flipped to January. Perhaps the biggest exception to that is right-hander , who MLBTR ranked as the offseasons #8 free agent (fourth among starters) at the outset of the winter as part of our annual . At the time, we predicted Flaherty would land a five-year, $115MM pact in free agency. That prediction at least seems to have ended up in the right ballpark, as Flaherty is seeking a five-year deal at this stage of his free agency. Between the winters robust market for pitching and the fact that Flaherty was able to reach free agency unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer thanks to a midseason trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it stands to reason that he should have a strong chance of reaching that sort of deal. On the other hand, however, its worth noting that there are some signs the market for pitching has begun to cool. Burness deal with Arizona just before the New Year came with a strong average annual value and a potentially lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal knocks the net present value of the pact below $200MM. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM pact for Burnes at the outset of the winter, so while even that diminished net present value is more-or-le s in line with expectations headed into the offseason, the deal in some ways pales in comparison to the one signed by earlier in the winter and certainly falls short of the rightys of $245MM. If the market for starters has indeed begun to cool somewhat, its po sible that the market for Flaherty could start to fizzle out when the start of Spring Training games draws near. After all, we need only look back at Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how a pitchers market can collapse once they dont have enough time left to have a typical Spring Training. For now, however, Flaherty still seems to enjoy a fairly robust market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Oroles have all been in recent days. The Blue Jays and Giants have both been connected to the majority of the offseasons high-end free agents, as neither club has been particularly shy about its desire to land impact talent this winter. Toronto was notably among the apparent finalists for Burnes before he signed in Arizona, and while the Giants were also strongly connected to Burnes theres been some indications in the aftermath of his deal with the Diamondbacks that San Francisco is more focused on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants have been to first baseman , its po sible that the clubs interest in a pitcher of Flahertys caliber is more as a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to land the big bat they desire. Theres a po sibility that a similar situation could play out with the Blue Jays, as well. The club is known to have to outfielder already, and earlier this winter suggested that Toronto may only have room for one significant multi-year deal in the budget. Its po sible that the Tigers fall into a similar boat. While the club certainly has the payroll flexibility to make multiple significant multi-year additions if they so desire, president of baseball operations Albert Suarez Jersey Scott Harris has seemed to be hesitant about making significant multi-year commitments this winter, instead opting to land and on one-year deals. That hasnt stopped them from engaging in the markets of some big-time free agents, but with and helping to anchor a young rotation its easy to imaging the club prioritizing a hitter if they decide to offer a nine-figure deal to a player this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most frequently connected to third baseman and also appears to be in the mix for Santander. Two clubs that have been generally focused on pitching upgrades this winter are the Orioles and the Cubs. Baltimore has already added and to its rotation this winter, and those additions have left them with a deep group of potential starters that isnt in desperate need of another arm. With that being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burnes as the ace of the staff, and with 2023s staff ace expected to mi s at least the first half of 2025 its fair to think the club would benefit from adding a player of Flahertys caliber. To that end, theyve seemingly remained on the periphery of his market as they for upgrades even after last weeks deal for Morton. As for Chicago, they in some ways appear to be the best fit for Flahertys services. The Cubs appear to be mostly set on offense after adding and ; while theres potentially room at third base for another bat, they havent been closely connected to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospect as a potential Opening Day starter at the position. Theres been plenty of buzz about them adding to their pitching staff, however, and recently described another rotation addition as inevitable for the club, whether thats a move to improve depth or bringing a more impactful piece into the fold. Flaherty would certainly fall into the latter category, but its worth noting that Sharma earlier this winter that while the Cubs have engaged with Flaherty, they were feeling a bit squeamish about his asking price at that point. Theres some incentive for Flaherty to wait at least a little longer before making his decision: the presence of right-hander on the market. Sasaki is being pursued by a large number of teams and is rumored to have met with at least two Flaherty suitors: the Giants and Cubs. Given his unique situation as a potential front-of-the-rotation piece who can be had for nothing more than a minor league deal (and a hefty portion of a clubs international bonus pool), its easy to imagine a number of pitching-hungry clubs focusing their attention squarely on Sasaki while hes available. The right-handers decision is due by January 23, so its not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case a club that mi ses out on Sasaki either steps up their offer or enters the fray as a new potential suitor. In the meantime, how do you think Flahertys free agency will play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or will a mystery team swoop in and get a deal done? Is the right-hander going to land a deal within the ballpark of MLBTRs prediction? Will he fall short of, or perhaps exceed, expectations? Have your say in the polls below. Where Will Flaherty Sign? Giants 23.83% (1,987votes) Tigers 18.97% (1,582votes) Orioles 17.71% (1,477votes) Blue Jays 14.82% (1,236votes) Cubs 13.30% (1,109votes) Other (Specify in the comments) 11.36% (947votes) Total Votes: 8,338 How Much Will Flaherty Be Guaranteed? Le s than $100MM 46.66% (2,995votes) $100MM - $125MM 44.04% (2,827votes) More than $125MM 9.30% (597votes) Total Votes: 6,419 Eddie Murray Jersey
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